Despite the fact that we did a weblog submit about inflation as lately as February 2022, it’s nonetheless a sizzling matter (sadly) a number of months later. So, we figured it will be price revisiting by specializing in a key query at hand: “How do we all know if/when inflation is getting higher?”
To reply, we should first ask how inflation—the year-over-year (YoY) change within the Client Worth Index (CPI)—has modified from one month to the subsequent, which is precisely what the next chart addresses, ranging from January 2020:
As you’ll be able to see, there was a small drop within the inflation fee in April 2022 (in comparison with March), nevertheless it got here again up a bit in Might 2022—and the most important month-over-month will increase occurred in early 2021. Issues stabilized a bit over July, August, and September of final yr, however then elevated once more within the fall.
The above chart will proceed to replace every month, permitting you to rapidly see if inflation is, actually, getting higher. You need to use the drop-down filters to look at particular geographies or classes of products.
To reply what’s prone to be your subsequent query—”Okay, inflation has improved a bit, however what classes are literally driving that change?”—we use the next bullet chart, the place the darkish blue bar signifies the share for the present month, the sunshine blue hash (bullet) signifies the share for the prior month, and the classes are sorted by the change from the prior interval (represented by the gap between the bar and the bullet) so the most important modifications present first:
Utilizing this chart of Prime Classes, we will see that, in Might, “Gasoline oil and different fuels,” “Public transportation,” and “Motor gas” continued to see rising inflation, whereas “Family furnishings” got here down from highs in April.
The final assemble we will have a look at to grasp if inflation is getting higher (or worse, for that matter) takes from a preferred retail metric: the “two-year stack,” which is calculated by including the YoY change to the YoY change from the identical interval final yr. (There’s a entire mathematical debate on whether or not it is best to actually calculate a CAGR, however typically easy wins out.)
Utilizing this method, the ultimate chart (beneath) reveals inflation charges for each this yr and final yr, with the grey bars exhibiting the month-over-month totals. This estimates the overall impression in comparison with two years in the past—which, sadly for us as we speak, was a significantly better place to be so far as costs go.